Popular Choice and Managed Democracy: The Russian Elections of 1999 and 2000 by Colton Timothy J. & McFaul Michael

Author:Colton, Timothy J. & McFaul, Michael [Colton, Timothy J. & McFaul, Michael]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, Diplomacy, Russia & the Former Soviet Union, Political Ideologies, History, Democracy, General, International Relations, Europe, Communism; Post-Communism & Socialism
ISBN: 081571534X
Google: jA4YngEACAAJ
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Published: 2003-01-15T11:02:44.468705+00:00

table 6-2. We estimate that the median voter who thought worst of Yavlinskii’s leadership qualities had no chance of voting for him; for the median voter who thought best of him, the probability of supporting Yavlinskii was still only .28, far below 50 percent.80

A similar trend comes to light on issue competence. Twelve percent of citizens in 2000 assessed Yavlinskii as the most competent to manage the economy (see table 6-9). On every other issue, less than 10 percent rated him as most proficient. He ranked lower than Putin and Zyuganov on all six issues. He also yielded to Tuleyev on social security, to Vladimir Zhirinovskii on Chechnya and on crime and corruption, and to the nuisance candidate Yurii Skuratov on crime and corruption. Even if every voter who assayed Yavlinskii as most competent on a single issue (16 percent of our survey sample) had voted for him, he still would have finished a country mile behind the leaders. As it happened (see table 6-10), the median voter would have needed to rate Yavlinskii as tops on five of six issues for the probability of supporting him to go over

.50.81 Ninety-nine percent of Russians in 2000 did not think that kindly of Yavlinskii’s promise.

07 1534-X chap06 ColtonMcFaul.qxd 9/30/2003 3:56 PM Page 169

The Liberals / 169

Table 6-10. Yavlinskii Vote and Prospective Evaluations of His Issue Competence

Number of issues Yavlinskii

Citizen opinion

Predicted probability of

can handle best

(percent) a

voting for Yavlinskii b

0

84

.02

1

9

.05

2

4

.12

3

1

.27

4

0.8

.48

5

0.3

.68

6

0.6

.82

a. N = 1,755 weighted cases.

b. Computed from multistage statistical model, holding causally prior and simultaneous variables constant at their medians. Sample N = 1,481; p £ .01 for all cells in the column.

Conclusions

The liberals exited the electoral cycle of 1999–2000 the way they entered, a house divided against itself. Although in agreement on overarching goals of individual freedom and repudiation of Russia’s authoritarian and statist heritage, they went after them in contrary ways. The Union of Right Forces, having defied gloomy forecasts and made it into the Duma, pursued what its organizers instinctively prefer—informing and sharing in power. Yabloko, having fallen short of this target, went about its standard routine—chastising and checking the holders of power. SPS remained largely the voice of social engineering and modernization, Yabloko the voice of conscience.

The right-wing parties could not and did not claim after the event that they had been uniquely vilified or victimized during the campaign season. When it came to popular support, SPS organizers were quite happy with their showing, while Yabloko leaders were quite disappointed. Aggregate support for the liberals, however, remained static. In the parliamentary contest, at least, SPS, Yabloko, and two small-fry parties held their combined voting strength at roughly the plateau it had been at for a half-decade—15 to 20 percent of the electorate. They did not do worse because, for all the miseries that radical reform has brought, enough Russians still feel Westernization is the best or the only road for the country to travel and some are already benefiting from the course. They did not do appreciably better because

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